With “Team Persistent” having clearly prevailed over “Team Transitory” in the debate over the nature of today’s surging inflation, the question now is whether prices can be tamed without also causing a recession. The historical evidence suggests not, leaving central banks to choose between bad and worse options

If the US Federal Reserve wishes to avoid a return to stagflation, it must recognize the huge gulf between the level of real interest rates under former Fed Chair Paul Volcker and the current incumbent. It is delusional to think that today’s wildly accommodative monetary policy can solve the worst inflation problem in a generation

With elevated global inflation likely to persist for some time, the prospect of competitive exchange-rate appreciations is looming larger. Instead of a race to the bottom in the currency market, there may be a scramble to the top – and poorer countries will likely suffer the most

Fully integrated investment approach and talent supply are key

The Club of Rome’s landmark 1972 report warning of the potentially catastrophic consequences of exponential economic growth was widely dismissed by mainstream economists at the time. Had that not happened, The Limits to Growth would not be required reading today

While some economic indicators suggest that the recovery remains on track, others show that consumers may be stalling out, and that households and businesses are becoming increasingly pessimistic. The US Federal Reserve will have to respond more nimbly to economic softening than it did to strengthening in 2021

Between falling real incomes in advanced economies, China’s weakening outlook, and the uncertainties stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine, there is more than enough reason to worry that the post-pandemic recovery is giving way to a downturn. But there is still much that policymakers could do to mitigate the blow

High commodity prices help buffer external positions, fiscal revenues

By using all the means at its disposal to support potentially debt-distressed member states, the European Central Bank is not merely serving as a market maker of last resort. Rather, it is engaged in fiscal-support operations, potentially to the detriment of its mandated objectives

Although the International Monetary Fund’s newly revised policy framework on capital controls makes some improvements on what came before, it is still likely to do more harm than good. Real-world experience and advances in economic theory have shown that the IMF’s suspicions about such policies are misplaced

Rich countries have shown impressive unity in helping Ukraine counter the Russian invasion. They now need to demonstrate the same level of resolve to prevent the global economic fallout from the conflict from destroying the lives or livelihoods of many of the world’s most vulnerable people

Now that markets have finally been conditioned for interest-rate hikes, the danger of financial over-tightening looms large. Just as central bankers have embarked on a long-overdue process of balance-sheet unwinding, global developments have pushed the economy to the edge of recession

Leading central banks are now deploying tools that should help to contain growing price pressures. But these measures will impose a high economic cost, and could push the most vulnerable economies into recession